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Prediction for CME (2026-06-06T14:11:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-06T14:11Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46690/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a southeast partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery, and is seen to the east in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and M1.8 flare from Active Region 14461 (S22E24) starting around 2025-06-06T13:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304, and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible over the southeast limb in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery, and a large EUV wave and dimming is observed surrounding the eruption site in SDO AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 195/284 imagery. Additionally, post eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 171/105 imagery starting around 2026-06-06T15:00Z.
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-08T02:41Z (-5.92h, +5.92h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note: 
CME input parameters:
r_init = 21.5 R_sun
t_init = 2026-06-06T16:11Z
lon = -19.5
lat = -9.5
half width = 47°
initial speed = 1544 km/s

predicted arrival speed = 883 +/- 219 km/s
Lead Time: 13.43 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) on 2026-06-07T13:15Z
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